THE CENTER FLEXES ITS MUSCLES

I had last month’s Wired laying around so I thought id pick it up and see if there was anything blog-worthy. I found THIS ARTICLE on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (smirk, even laugh if you want to) particularly interesting when I began thinking about what the Governator has done in California and how it relates to the median voter theorem. The author, Jill Stewart, calls the action hero “The New American Idol,” and sees Arnold as the future of American politics, calling him “. . . socially liberal and economically conservative . . .a political hybrid who can't easily be labeled, categorized, or dismissed as a conventional hack. . . acts in ways that most politicians, beholden to moneyed interests, can only dream of . . ..” The fact that he is an outsider without any significant party affiliation is a testament to his legitimacy as a sincere individual who will pursue the interests of the people before himself. It seems as if his lack of a vested interest in the office makes him a more ideal politician, willing to listen to and respect all the people he represents. Most political analysts, democrat and republican, agree with Stewart that “. . .a funny thing happened on the way to California once again being the butt of late-night TV jokes: Schwarzenegger has turned out to be a surprisingly effective governor.” Eradicating gerrymandering, balancing the budget, letting the courts and people decide gay-marriage, stem-cell research, and a wide range of other issues for themselves, and being pro-environment, pro-choice, and laissez-fair with business are all positions that resonate well with many Americans, placing Schwarzenegger in a very comfortable and influential position. Arnold believes, and I agree, that bipartisanism proves to be more effective when someone has to represent millions of people with widely varying views and beliefs. As Farah pointed out in her blog, the concept of a party moving towards the center in order to capture the median voter should be carefully examined before it is carried out because of a resulting intersection of positions leading to voter indifference, alienation, and abstention. Politicians play a dangerous, some would say dishonest, game when they try to appeal to as much of the center as possible while retaining their extreme left or right core constituents (not to mention funders). Supposedly the candidate who captures the median voter is the victor, and one of the main concerns of a party moving towards the center is loosing those far-left or far-right votes that would cancel out those gained by the move. Now a candidate like Schwarzenegger, whose stance on a range of issues seems to place him smack in middle with a reach extending close to the centers of the left and right, appears to me to be unstoppable (insert your favorite terminator/action star joke here). Although a run at the White House isn’t in the cards unless the constitution is amended, the implications his success and support have on a national level are considerable. Will “the Schwarzenegger model” become the rubric of success for financially viable, loosely tied, political outsiders with genuine intentions, moderate views, and a desire for a seat at the table? If so, can these candidates manage to alienate the far-left and right, capture the median voter, and bring along enough moderates from both parties to get elected? Following that logic a little further, this would then mean it is possible that the left and right extremes would no longer be necessary to appeal to in an election, as their voting would be largely unpredictable and inconsequential. On the other hand, if two center-based candidates were vying for office, it would seem that whoever could capture the far-left or right vote would win. What does this mean for the no longer coveted median voter and the median voter theorem itself? There could be a tremendous impact on the balance of power as well as foreign and domestic policies. If the steam of this less corporately funded, socially liberal, fiscally conservative movement picks up, is there also the potential for a move toward a three party system composed of center-based (libertarians??), far-left-based, and far-right-based parties? This would change the way the US Government operates. The re-election of George W. Bush left a sour taste in the mouths of roughly fifty-three million people; perhaps the country is in for an identity check that will unite the center at the expense of the extremes. What do you think?