Democrats on the Move

I read an interesting article in the Economist entitled “The Great Democratic Crack Up” http://www.economist.com/world/na/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3353402 which discussed Hillary Clinton as being the most likely democratic candidate for the 2008 election because of her orientation towards the center. The article argues that Senator Kerry’s loss should be a wake up call for Democrats who need to stop moving towards the left and start moving towards the center. This will help in appealing to the more conservative constituency in Middle America who voted for the Republican party without fail this election. Hillary Clinton is considered to be a good candidate because “she has moved to the centre since becoming senator of New York: she has been careful to support the Iraq war and has found herself a seat on the Senate Armed Services Committee.” Hillary still appeals however to the left because of “her record (particularly on health care reform) and her sex (remember that the majority of voters in the Democratic primaries are women).” She is however more oriented towards the center than Senator Kerry was for example. The writer is entertaining the notion that Hillary’s move toward the center may be what the Democratic party needs to capture the median voter and to win the election for the Democrats in 2008. “Moving the party farther to the left is unlikely to do the job. Democrats need to learn how to relate to a culturally conservative country.” It is now evident that Senator Kerry was not very successful in achieving this goal. This is an interesting idea but after grappling with it for a while I had a few concerns. Let’s say that the Democrats do adopt a new strategy in the upcoming election and we see a huge push towards the center by the left in order to capture the median voter. Given the assumptions of the Median Voter Thereom particularly the condition of spatial mobility, it is likely that the right will push right back and also attempt to take over the median voter. At this point both parties will be moving more towards the center and there may be less of a distinction between both parties and their platforms. This may lead to voters abstaining from voting all together because of their indifference among both candidates resulting from their similar platforms. As both parties move toward the center to capture the median voter there will be a convergence of their political stances which may lead to either abstention or a less rational and more random choice made by voters. This idea of moving towards the center should be thought out carefully by Democrats so that they do not lose the median voter all together because of indifference and alienation. There will be those in the Democratic party that feel alienated and may feel that their party has compromised many of the liberal ideas that they cherish in order to move towards the center. These considerations should be made before the Democratic party implements a strategy for the 2008 election. http://www.economist.com/world/na/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3353402