Sunday, October 02, 2011

Open Primary Follies

While the Open Primary system has long been considered ripe for potential manipulation by Strategic Voting, the events of the 1998 Vermont U.S. Senate elections succeeded in making the system look more like a three-ring-circus than a Senate Election. In this case, an unknown candidate entered the Republican primary as a publicity stunt to support his low budget film, "Man with a Plan". No election expert in history could have predicted what would come next.

With the Republicans looking to find a challenger to the powerful and popular Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy, many looked to Massachusetts businessman and recent Vermont transplant Jack McMullen. Though denounced by many Democracts as a carpetbagger due to his short Vermont residency, McMullen was viewed as a strong candidate in a state that in 1998 was still somewhat Republican. All seemed normal until Fred Tuttle, a completely unknown dairy farmer who was seeking to promote his recent movie, entered the Republican Primary. The eighty-year-old who could barely walk, had only completed the 10th grade, and had no campaign platform to speak of, was about to make history. In his debate with McMullen, Tuttle disregarded any and all policy questions, and instead quizzed McMullen about the pronunciation of random Vermont town names and demanded he answer how many utters a cow has. McMullen failed miserably at answering any these basic Vermont questions. While still widely considered the easy front runner in the Republican Primary, his wound set into motion of of the most bizarre events ever seen in a major election.

Sensing a golden opportunity, Vermonters voted heavily in the Republican Primary, choosing Tuttle, the elderly dairy farmer, to face incumbent U.S. Senator Leahy. With many Republicans now indifferent to McMullen and Leahy assured a Primary victory, Vermont Democrats were able to flood the Republican Primary and use Strategic Voting to push Tuttle over the edge. Instead of campaigning, and in one of the strangest moves in political history, Tuttle decided to endorse his opponent Leahy and stated that he never wanted to be a Senator anyway. Even with this admission, Tuttle still received over 40,000 votes in his loss to Leahy. Had this been a Closed Primary, it is almost assured that the Republican Establishment would have chosen McMullen, even after being weakened. Instead, an influx of Democratic voters smelling blood allowed one of the most improbable candidates in history to derail any hope of a competitive Senate election in Vermont in 1998.

http://vermont-elections.org/elections1/1998PrimaryCanvass.pdf

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1718795,00.html

Follow on: Could the term "Strategic Candidate" be appropriately used to describe Tuttle?

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