Thursday, October 03, 2013

Republicans Ignore Median Voter Theorem

In recent polls, a majority of Americans sampled stated that they would be worse off due to Obamacare, as well as disapprove of the health care. Based upon the median voter theorem (MVT), it would be in the interest of not only the Republican party, but both parties to move toward the median opinion, which in this case is to change Obamacare. However, one assumption of the MVT is that there is a spectrum of choices rather than just two extremes. In the case of health care this spectrum may range from all inclusive, universal public health care to no public funding. So, the median voter's opinion, and thus the preferred stance of a political party, would be somewhere between the current proposal for Obamacare and no public health provision.

At the same time, a majority of Americans have criticized total defunding of the program and the Republican response to Obamacare (here). While the Republican party had an opportunity to maximize votes and find the median position, their push to totally defund Obamacare lies at the most extreme right of this single issue, i.e. single dimension. Clearly, by moving further left by any extent, there is a possibility to capture more votes, and this is true regardless of incomplete information on the distribution of voter opinion. By maintaining this position some voters that wish to decrease the magnitude of the policy are alienated. Despite these implications of the MVT, total opposition towards Obamacare has become the stance of the Republican party, and as shown empirically in the article public choice has reflected the MVT, which is disapproval of the Republican party. This now gives the Democratic party an opportunity to move toward the median, and in doing so capture public opinion.

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