Sunday, September 28, 2014

Rational Ignorance: Exposing a flaw in Tiebout's Set of Assumptions


After reading both Tiebout and Johnson, I discovered a contradiction in the foundations of their arguments. One of the first assumptions that Tiebout mentions in his paper is that citizens have perfect knowledge of the revenue-expenditure patterns of all polities. If we combine this with his other assumptions, we follow Tiebout as he contends that a person will take her knowledge of the spending patterns of each polity and simply move to the one that gives her the most utility. Thus, for Tiebout, it is rational for a person to be informed about the revenue-expenditure patterns of her community and the other communities around her, because she stands to gain from moving to the community that has a spending pattern that she likes best. Although Johnson builds his argument toward a conclusion unrelated to Tiebout's, he also touches on the question of political knowledge, and gives an opposite answer. To Johnson, it is not rational for a citizen to be knowledgeable of political issues, which certainly include (but are not limited to) community revenue-expenditure patterns. To Johnson, this rational ignorance stems from the fact that each community member has a less-than-miniscule chance of affecting revenue-expenditure patterns and other political issues her community must decide on. So which is it: is it rational for a citizen to be uninformed about her community’s political issues, specifically revenue-expenditure patterns, or not?

This article (see 5th and 6th paragraphs) that summarizes polls of California voters suggests that very few of them know much about the revenue-expenditure patterns of their state. When pollsters gave voters a list of California's four largest spending categories and asked them to identify which one was the largest of the four, only 22% were able to choose the right answer (public schools). Responders were clearly ignorant, at least with respect to this question, considering they would have performed better if they had randomly guessed. A different question on the poll revealed that only 9% of Californian voters surveyed knew both the largest source of revenue and the largest spending category of their state.** If Tiebout is right, then why do so few people know about the revenue and expenditures of their state? It could be because only a small minority of those polled choose to act rationally and learn their state's spending patterns. This explanation isn't all that satisfying, though, because it suggests that our society is one full of irrational people and that the homoeconomicus is a rare breed. Assuming that most people of a community do in fact act rationally, the only other explanation is that Tiebout's assumptions are too bold and do not capture reality. My prediction is that people don’t take the time to learn about the revenue-expenditure patterns of their communities not only because they have a miniscule chance of affecting them (as Johnson suggests) but also because they are much less mobile than Tiebout is willing to acknowledge and often do fall victim to job constraints and other causes of imperfect mobility. If it is the case that people cannot easily move into communities that employ preferable revenue-expenditure patterns, then it is irrational for people to waste time researching those patterns, and thus Johnson’s idea of rational ignorance reigns supreme over Tiebout’s ideas of incentivized learning and acting.   

**I am aware that the poll results demonstrate how much citizens know about their state, a much larger political entity than those that Tiebout shaped his argument around. I'm assuming that city-centered polls wouldn't vary drastically from this Californian one, but if they do, then I owe Tiebout more credit than I am giving him. 

2 comments:

Unknown said...

I disagree with Emily's argument on the basis that the two theories were developed in regards to different subjects, and therefore the assumptions of one were not intended to hold for the other. Tiebout's theory is based on the optimal provision of public goods in society, whereas Johnson's relates to the rationality of voters. Johnson claims it is rational for an individual to be somewhat ignorant about the policies on which they are voting, because the marginal cost of gaining more knowledge will not exceed the benefits when the probability of decisiveness is so low. Tiebout's assumption of perfect information, on the other hand, means that the individual voters have access to perfect information with regards to the expenditure patterns of various communities that have already been set and are not up for vote. In regards to the Tiebout theory, it would be completely rational for a person to gain knowledge about these patterns and not remain ignorant because, given perfect mobility, they are then able to move into the community which most closely matches their preferences.
The foundation of Tiebout’s theory lies in the idea that given perfect information, individual’s can choose their optimal society. Johnson’s claims on rational ignorance, however, are based on the tiny probability that an individual’s vote will be decisive and therefore it may be a waste of time to learn about the policies. Tiebout is no way addressing the decisiveness of one’s vote in determining the policies, the policies have already been determined at the local level, it is therefore to the individual’s advantage to learn information about the revenue- expenditure bundles in order to find the society that best matches his/ her preferences. Although I think Emily makes good points, and I agree that the assumption of perfect information is not always realistic, I don’t think her argument that it is a flaw in Tiebout's theory holds because Tiebout’s assumption about perfect information was not intended to be applied to elections in which individuals vote on various policies, but rather on the consumer-voter that chooses to join a certain community based on the existing structure of policies. .

Unknown said...

One possible response to Emily's critique is that while people do not always know the details of every local law, they do know the property values of where they live. These do vary individually, but they attend to occur in ranges. Therefore, the theory would go, property values could be an expression of the utility people assign to the packages of public goods provided by a community plus the utility inherent to the location defined by a Ricardian model.

The problem with this suggestion is that it involves a certain circularity. If the optimal provision of public goods is defined as the one which results in the highest property values, then we cannot test this possible solution to Emily's critique, since we are already assuming that it is true. Alternatively we could simply define an optimal provision and then test, but now we are being explicitly normative--and we have no reason to assume that our preferences are necessarily those of others.

Perhaps the best definition would come from intense comparison of aggregated willingness-to-pay data, but now we have to account for the effect of budget constraints, and taxes. I think the relation of property values to public goods is unprovable.