In one of his most passionate speeches in recent memory, President Obama urged black voters to show up in support for Hillary Clinton this November at a Black Caucus Foundation gala on September 17. In response to Mrs. Clinton's weak energy among young black voters relative to energy for Mr. Obama in the 2008 and 2012 elections, the President argued that the 2016 vote will determine far more than merely the next head of state: "My name may not be on the ballot, but progress is on the ballot. Tolerance is on the ballot. Democracy is on the ballot. Justice is on the ballot."
Vis-a-vis the Johnson reading, Mr. Obama's speech bears two points of interest. First of all, the speech ups the 2016 ante. That is, he is attempting to convince black voters that the benefits of their voting for Mrs. Clinton may be higher than they previously thought: the President is implying that fundamental progressive values are at stake. Thus, the rational potential voter must not only consider the benefits of Mrs. Clinton's policies, but also the benefits of "progress," "tolerance," "democracy," and "justice," which carry, of course, quite some value. Ironically, though, given that Mr. Obama is encouraging a higher voter turnout among black voters, the expected probability of a single voter swinging the election decreases even while the benefit of voting for Mrs. Clinton increases, and perhaps the outcome of the individual voter's equation changes very little.
However, Mr. Obama's encouragement to vote may not be naive after all. A two-term, energetic President with ever increasing favorability numbers, President Obama's actions may very well swing the election if his encouragement convinces enough people in the black community to vote. His words as a popular figure carry far more influence than his individual vote ever could, and one could perhaps argue that he would do better to spend November 8th making stump speeches at voting locations in Florida or Ohio rather than taking the time to cast a vote.
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