Ortega's Election

 Last summer I was supposed to travel to Bluefields, Nicaragua to conduct a public health research project on the rising teenage pregnancy rates. In April, however, severe civil unrest broke out across the nation due to incredibly unpopular social security reforms proposed by their president, Daniel Ortega. Due to the country’s volatile climate, the International Studies Office ended up revoking my permission to travel. In the months since then, the proposed policies have been renounced, but the civil discontent has persisted. Now, many of the ongoing protests are aimed at Ortega  and the dictatorial way in which he runs the state.

Curious about the whole situation, I ended up doing a bit of my own background research and was surprised by what I found. Ortega, a former Marxist guerilla, was originally elected president after Anastasio Somoza, the former dictator, was overthrown in 1979. After a few years in office, however, he lost the 1990s election. Despite being outvoted, he remained a prominent member of the leftist National Liberation Front and continued to run for re-election. He finally regained the office in 2006 with 38% of the popular vote after having convinced the Supreme Court to allow presidential candidates to win with only 35%. Since then, he has managed to win twice more, and is currently serving his fourth term.

While all of this is quite congruous with dictatorial behaviors, what surprised me was that in his most recent re-election campaign (in 2016), he managed to garner nearly 75% of the vote, over double that of 2006. Based on what I’ve read, the reasons behind this seem to fall into 3 main buckets. The first, and least influential, is rational voter ignorance. Given the resources available to Ortega’s team, there was a rather concentrated effort to advertising effort focused on Ortega’s successes (i.e. falling poverty rates and gang violence). For those disinclined to conduct further research into the candidates, Ortega presents a familiar and positive image. The second reason seems to rely on the Median Voter Theorem, albeit in 2 ways. Firstly, Ortega  adopted more moderate viewpoints, openly declaring his love for God and promoting limitations to abortion, which garnered him additional votes. He also used the Supreme Court to block the leading opposition candidate, Eduardo Montealegre, from running, thereby inherently capturing more votes. Finally, research indicates that there was a non-random distribution of abstentions, with many politically-disenchanted Nicaraguans opting to stay home rather than vote against Ortega in the sham election. Some sources report abstention rates as high as 70%, suggesting a vast majority didn’t show up to the polls.

The current political climate in Nicaragua presents a rather terrifying image. Ongoing protests are being quenched, often through violent means. Ortega, meanwhile, isn’t subject to any checks and balances. He has done away with term limits, allowing himself to rule indefinitely. Nicaragua, unfortunately, now finds itself under another dictator less than 40 years after the last was overthrown. Only time can tell if the nation can overcome its tumultuous situation.