When talking about voting, one of the reasons economists believe people won't vote is because of the minuscule odds that your vote will influence the outcome of the election. In November of 2017, voters in Virginia House District 94 (Newport News) had an election in which a single vote could have decided the outcome of the election. After many recounts, the two candidates Shelly Simonds (D) and David Yancey (R) were tied at 11,607 votes each. Because of Virginia law, the winner of this election was determined by drawing lots; David Yancey's name was drawn. Not only did this decide the representative from District 94, but it also decided who held a majority in the Virginia State House. With that win, Republicans held a 51-49 majority.
This November, Virginians will (maybe) go to the polls as all of the commonwealth's representatives and senators are up for reelection. This past election will probably encourage more people to out to the polls and vote this year. This year there will probably be more voters as people will reevaluate their E[MB]. People will not multiply E[MB] by 1/v as they will look back and remember this instance when one vote did matter; this is because of recency bias as people will remember this and might expect it to happen again. E[MB] will also increase because the differential outcome will be greater as the election of one representative might determine who has a majority in the legislature. Controlling a chamber of the legislature brings with it many benefits such as being able to set the agenda and chairing committees.
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