Voting

Yesterday, I voted in the Virginia General Election. I had no idea whom I was voting for besides their party. Last year voting, I felt bad that I was unsure of whom to vote for in two races, but this year I only recognized a single name, Sally Hudson, and she was unopposed. I was perfectly fine with this since there was an organization outside who gave a sample ballot with picks based on their party, this and knowing how little my vote counted made me feel totally okay with my ignorance.

While I likely won't be in Charlottesville next year, there is a chance I'll end up in Northern Virginia. In this case, only the Senate of Virginia and Member House of Delegates votes could have a possible effect on me, neither of which I expect to be substantial monetarily. However, I receive some utility from knowing the issues I care about are more likely to be debated. Also, it is satisfying to be on a team that wins. If there was a machine that could measure utility, after the NCAA basketball championship I would have been mistaken for a star player, although I was nowhere near Minneapolis. I value my picks winning this election at around $20.

Assuming I had no idea of polling beforehand and based on the number of votes actually cast, my vote in the Senate race had a 1/12,935 chance of determining the election. The Delegate race was a little better, with 11,899 votes cast total, though there were no other candidates listed on the ballot.  For simplicity's sake, let's say the chance for casting the deciding ballot here is 1/11,899.

Had I not voted, I likely would have been able to get to bed maybe ~30 minutes earlier, which I value at $1. So, is E[MB] > MC? The marginal cost is only this earlier bedtime since I walked to the voting location. Even in the Delegate race, it's not even close-> (1/11,899)*20 = $0.00168081, less than half a penny. The reason I choose to vote was not that I thought my vote would count, but because I enjoy interacting with the people who volunteer at the polls, this makes up the majority of the "D" value we discussed in class. The volunteers are always extremely nice and genuinely happy to see me; I value this to be about $5, making the equation E[MB] + B = 5.00168 -> (1/11,899)*20 + 5 > 1, explaining why I actually cast a vote yesterday. The sticker I got didn't add any value, since I now know the chance of it being true are less than 0.01%.