When we've talked about p, or the probability that an individual vote is decisive, in class, we have reasoned that in most US elections, this value is minimal, effectively 0. However, the most recent presidential election has taught us otherwise. According to this article, Georgia is preparing to recount the state's votes by hand to verify the results. There may be a recount in my home state, Pennsylvania. President Trump has been pursuing legal actions in a number of states to fight the results of this election.
Clearly, the presidential (along with some House and Senate elections) were incredibly close in a handful of states this year. If you live in one of these crucial swing states like I do, then your p value is larger than you think. Sure, you likely did not and will never single-handedly decide an election. However, this p is still much larger than the p value for those that live in "safe" states, like the now reliably blue Virginia. This was also true in 2016, when Trump won Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by the slimmest of margins. In that election, turnout was not very high- the electorate didn't really believe there was an incentive to vote! But in 2020, turnout was at historic levels. It may be because more people felt that their p was higher, more people wanted to perform their civic duty, or maybe there was just a lot more self interest and expressive voting in 2020. I suspect that the third option is true. But the slim margins of victory in crucial states in the last two presidential elections have definitely proved that, if you live in the right state, your p value is not 0. Your vote counts.
1 comment:
Great analysis. I would like to add to your point about seeing higher probabilities of swinging the victory in specific states. Something I noticed during the ongoing election was the high turnout rates in cities located in crucial swing states. For example, the voter turnout rate in Milwaukee was 84% while some counties reported over 100% turnout due to absentee ballots. Wisconsinites (even those not even residing in their home counties) realized their votes could potentially sway such a crucial election and they showed out in force as a response. This election also had the highest voter turnout in the past 20 years for the city of Detroit. Once the voters were told that their vote gave them an increased probability of bringing home a victory, they found their way to the polls. Their expected return on voting increased with the increase in probability of swaying the election, as we would predict.
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