Sunday, November 22, 2020

Slack and Presidential Candidates

In The Myth of the Rational Voter, Caplan points out an interesting shirking phenomenon that can be exemplified by events during this election cycle. Caplan explains that elections constrain representatives only as much as voters care about a certain issue. If voters care deeply about an issue and it is interesting to them, politicians have almost no slack. If voters don't care about an issue, or find it boring, politicians have some amount of slack. During this presidential election there were certain policy spaces where the candidates had little slack and certain areas where they had a lot, and these were very different depending on the political party that the candidate represented.

One key divisive policy space was the handling of COVID-19, with 82% of Biden supporters saying this was very important to their vote in the 2020 election and only 32% of Trump supports saying the same thing. This means that Biden was held significantly more accountable and enjoyed less "wiggle room" in regards to his plans for COVID, while Trump had significant slack. This can be evidenced by the fact that many regard Trump's handling of the pandemic as going back and forth between approaches. For example, his indecision about the usage and importance of mask wearing. Meanwhile, Biden has held unchanging and staunch views on his approach to COVID, saying that he will implement a national mask mandate if he is elected. Biden's stance here strongly mirrors what his electorate has been demanding. Trump can occupy a more moderate stance on COVID policies because his electorate does not overwhelmingly demand a certain strong response. 

Another space where Biden and Trump experienced significantly different levels of political slack was the policy approach to crime. 74% of Trump supporters sited this was very important to their vote, while 46% of Biden supporters said so. Again, we can see this difference in slack reflected in the candidates' policy focus. Trump has held extremely vocal and cohesive views on "being tough on crime," as evidenced by his policy choices, such as full support for increased police rights. Meanwhile, Biden occupies a more moderate stance - for example, calling for investigations into police misconduct, but not for the police defunding that so many voters called for. 

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