Virginia’s Median Voter: A White Woman

Virginia’s gubernatorial election has just finished with Glenn Youngkin beating Terry McAuliffe by about 2.5 percentage points, a swing of over 10 points compared to the 2020 election.  One of the largest swings was with white women, (40% of the electorate) which swung in favor of Youngkin by 13 points.  White women have a history of being an unreliable group but education was the issue that drove them to Youngkin.  Education was the top issue for 24% of white women and 84% of white women thought parents should have a say in what their child school’s teaches, an opinion seemingly not held by McAuliffe.  That alongside Youngkin’s stance against the recent scandals in Loudon County effectively courted the group towards him during the last month in the campaign.

The Median Voter Model states that the median voter will determine which candidate will win the election by voting for the candidate who most closely matches their values.  Since Youngkin won the election, (assuming no abstentions) we can assume the median voter voted for Youngkin. Given the timing of the education scandals, the concurrent rise of support for Youngkin by white women for his stance on education, the large proportion of the electorate white women make up, and the unreliability of white women to vote for either party, it is safe to assume a white woman was the median voter this past election.