Tomorrow is November 7th, which means that Virginians will be flooding to the polls to cast their vote in this year's gubernatorial election... right? Well, maybe. Gubernatorial elections in Virginia have a history of drawing substantially fewer voters than presidential elections do. Johnson explains that the decision whether or not to vote is based on several factors, including the marginal benefit and probability of casting a decisive vote, as well as the social climate that the potential voters are surrounded by. In most cases, it is actually irrational for a person to vote because the chance of their vote being decisive is infinitesimally low.
Polls for tomorrow's election show that Ralph Northam and Ed Gillespie both have a fair chance of winning, with the latest poll by Siena Research Institute showing that Northam is leading by just 3%. This means that the probability of casting a decisive vote is certainly greater than it would be in, for example, Texas' gubernatorial election in 2014. However, Virginia's last gubernatorial election, in 2013, was very closely contested as well and still only drew just over 40% of eligible voters to the polls. I would predict that tomorrow's turnout would be similar, if it weren't for the way that last year's Presidential election went. My theory is that since last year's election was such a dramatic shock to much of the public, Virginians will approach this election with new zeal. I personally have experienced much more social pressure to vote for this gubernatorial election than I've seen for any other (granted, this is the only gubernatorial election that I've been old enough to vote in). This social pressure has been applied in the form of incessant reminders from friends, offers of transportation to polls, and emphatic phone calls from my mother. All of these factors have made the utility that I will get out of voting tomorrow increase, because I will be able to tell everyone to calm down because, yes, I did vote.
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