Rafael Nadal's Expected Marginal Benefits

 One of the many externalities of the coronavirus pandemic affected the world of professional tennis. Because of postponements and cancellations, the French Open was moved to October instead of May, only a few weeks after the U.S. Open in September. Because of the ongoing uncertainty and travel restrictions, some players felt they could not play in both tournaments. This situation reminded me of the discussions about voting in Johnson's Voting, Rational Abstention, and Rational Ignorance. Instead of a low expected marginal cost of voting overcoming an extremely low expected marginal benefit for each voter, each tennis player had a very high expected marginal benefit competing against a high expected marginal cost. Rafael Nadal decided to forego playing in the U.S. Open and play only in the French Open. I suspect his expected marginal benefit for the U.S. Open was one of the highest of any player since he was the defending champion and could reasonably expect to win the tournament or come very close. However, his expected marginal cost was such that it would cost him dearly to play in the U.S. Open. 

Nadal is known as the King of Clay, an epithet earned by winning 12 French Open championships and posting an astonishing 92-2 career record there. If he played in the U.S. Open, Nadal would have faced a very quick turnaround before the French at the least, and he might have been prevented from playing altogether because of different countries' pandemic border rules and quarantine requirements. Thus, his expected marginal cost of playing in the U.S. Open was in his mind equal to his expected marginal benefit of playing in the French. The outcome? Nadal "voted" against the U.S. Open because of its interdependent costs tied to the French Open, then he "voted" for the French Open. It transpired that he would not have had trouble with pandemic border rules and quarantine requirements, but he also did indeed win his 13th French Open championship, improving to a 99-2 career record there. I think he is happy with his choices.