Do people vote when the issues mattered most? Political economists like Johnson say no. But how does Virginia fit into this? Unlike most states, Virginia has an election every year. Of course, it has Presidential elections and Congressional elections every two years. But many do not realize that Virginia has a governor’s election the year after the presidential election, and a midterm for the House of Delegates the year after the Congressional midterms. Thus, with an election every year, it provides a fascinating case study into voter turnout based on various issues on the ballot.
The results are clear: many Virginians are indifferent to state and local elections. 72% of registered voters turned out in 2016, but only 48% for the 2017 Governor’s race and 42% for the House of Delegates and local races in 2019. This seems peculiar – in the elections where your vote matters most, where there was even a tie in 2017 which ultimately decided the control of power in the House of Delegates, people vote the least. And these elections have important issues that decide the funding for your local schools, the police department, and other vital local services that impact us daily, and voter turnout is at its lowest. And this feeds into Johnson’s argument – that regardless of the potential benefit of a preferred candidate winning, the social pressure to vote in the house of delegates midterm and the local school board election is insufficient. And anecdotally, we can all see this. Think, how many times were you asked “did you vote? Have you voted yet?” prior to the 2020 election? I could name at least a dozen times. But would I be the first person to ask “do you have a plan to vote this November?” I would assume so. Thus, through the lens of my life and yours in our Commonwealth, we can see that Johnson was right: voting in a gubernatorial election just isn’t that cool.
2 comments:
Your study of Virginia’s voter turnout in its local elections is interesting and makes many logical points on the rationale behind the “lazy” voter. Your focus on the lack of societal pressure that normally incentivizes a Virginia citizen to perform their civic duty had me thinking about other incentives that increase turnout, or fail to do so. One tactic that is currently making headlines within Virginia’s current gubernatorial election is early voting, particularly in how it is being used to increase the probability that a certain party’s candidate will win. Virginia republicans are now catching on to the trend of early voting that democrats utilized in the last presidential election, which led to thousands to skip the crowded polling places by casting their ballot beforehand. This gave the democrats a better idea of the turnout needed to win the election. Republican PACs are now encouraging republican voters to follow suit in order to “beat the democrats at their own game”. The early voting trend is increasing the Virginia republicans belief that their vote will matter and will help lead to a win. However, the actual probability that an individual Republican’s vote will determine the outcome won’t change, which perpetuates the paradox of voter theory. However, the costs of voting (time, stress) are decreasing from the individual voter standpoint, as they can partake in a more seamless voting process. Perhaps we will see a more optimistic voter turnout in Virginia’s “uncool” elections due to early voting.
Here is the article I am referencing in case you wanted to look into this further:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/09/17/virginia-governor-early-voting-republicans/
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