A Downs’ Perspective on the 2021 German Election

For the first time in decades, three parties will be needed to form a governing coalition in Germany. The country falls under Downs’ classification of a coalition government, where each party receives proportional representation in the Bundestag, the large legislative power of the German government. The top two parties, the C.D.U and the S.P.D, received only 24.1% and 25.7% of the majority vote, with the remainder split between four additional parties.

According to Downs’ analysis of multi-party systems, parties will strive to distinguish themselves ideologically from each other and maintain the purity of their positions. And this conclusion would normally stand in German politics, as small parties can have a real presence in the Bundestag as long as they retain merely 5% of the vote. But this can change as coalitions are formed post-election in an effort to gain a majority. Parties that have complementary ideologies/interests will find it easier to form coalitions, and this is currently seen with S.P.D’s lack of interest in forming a coalition with the AfD party, due to their extremism. 

Another interesting note from Downs’ analysis of multi party systems is his emphasis on ideology of parties. He states that voters in multiparty systems are much more likely to be swayed by doctrinal considerations than voters of two party systems. Germany’s mounting pressure for action in regards to the climate crisis and recent flooding can be attributed to the Green Party’s best ever performance in a federal election, with 15% of the vote. We can see that ideological interests based on the climate are better reflected in a multi-party system, and can have significant influence in election outcomes.