How to Fake A Simple Majority: Russian Edition

Annexation is a tricky subject in global politics. Annexation defined by international law is as follows: when one country forcibly asserts control and sovereignty over another countries territory. Typically this follows military occupation and is unilateral, meaning that the control is announced by the occupying power; the other party has no say. On September 30 Russia announced the annexation of four Ukrainian Territories, amounting to 17% of Ukraine, land roughly the same size as Portugal. Vladimir Putin didn't use the term annex but rather that the Ukrainian territories have acceded to Russian control. This comes after the results of "sham" referendums held in each of the four territories. In order for these referendums to pass in the regions of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk only a simple majority is required. The results yielded that at least 87% of voters in each province and an outrageous 99% in Donetsk voted for the land they lived in to formally become a part of Russia. 

These referendums, to no ones surprise, simply contained no pretense of legitimacy. The yes or no votes to become apart of Russia had been conducted at gunpoint. The results, intended to reflect the preferences of a majority of voters living in these four regions on the item of becoming Russian citizens, fail to do so accurately. The median voter theorem states that if voters are fully informed, their preferred outcomes can be arranged along one dimension, if each voter has a single most-preferred outcome, and if decisions are made by simple majority rule, then the median voter will be decisive. These assumptions are met and this  shows just how desperate Russia is. Not only does the coercion at gunpoint block the true preferences of the Ukrainian citizens but reveals that Russia acknowledged the real simple majority would not result in their favor. The Kremlin and the puppet leaders installed in the regions realized the decisive median voter would not vote in their direction, forcing them to strongly coerce the voting citizens. 

It's hard to fake a simple majority vote when the whole world knows the true preferences of the citizens you are trying to coerce. Russia tried to fool the world last week, the same way they did in 2014 with Crimea, once again the world wasn't fooled.