Could the Democrats gain from losing the midterm elections?

With the 2010 midterm elections just over a week away, President Barack Obama is pulling out all the stops to help the Democrats maintain control of Congress. The reasoning is obvious: the party that controls Congress has a significant voice in setting the legislative agenda. Because the House of Representatives and the Senate largely rely on simple majority voting, the ability to set the legislative agenda has several perks. The party in power has a better shot at using cycling, tool utility spheres, and logrolling to manipulate the agenda to maximize their priorities. Moreover, the party in power has a better chance to create rents, and if the effects of these rents can be dissipated, legislators are left with benefits for themselves such as campaign contributions or support from a constituency that benefits from the rent.

Having said all of that, this New York Times article argues President Obama could ultimately benefit if the Republicans take control of one or both houses of Congress. Becoming the majority party in the legislature has its advantages, but as the author points out, controlling Congress comes with responsibility for the country’s problems. If the Republicans retake Congress it will likely curtail Obama’s initiatives, but having the opposing party in power would provide him with a foil, which is something he can potentially manipulate as the 2012 presidential election approaches.

To further this point, the author discusses two other periods of divided government. When Harry Truman was president and the Republicans controlled Congress, Truman successfully ran for reelection in 1948 with the argument that the Republicans were the real obstacle to progress. Nearly 50 years later when the Republicans took power in 1994, President Bill Clinton acted as a middle man between his own party and his opposition, negotiating smaller pieces of legislation with the Republicans while portraying himself as a check against radical conservatism. The concept worked and Clinton was reelected in 1996.

Of course, if the Republicans do retake one or both houses of Congress, Obama may not be as lucky as his predecessors. Some critics believe he wouldn’t be as skilled at negotiating and that the Republicans learned their lessons from the 1940s and the 1990s. Thus, while having opposition in Congress may create political opportunities for the president, it’s clear he’d like to have his friends in control, not his enemies.