Results of Redistricting in California

In 2008, citizens of California voted for a redistricting to be done by a group of volunteer resident voters.  In the past, the district lines had been drawn by people inside California's politics.  But this year, for the first time, the congressional district lines were drawn by a wide array of people in professions ranging from doctor to teacher.  It was clear after the elections that the redistricting had a significant effect on candidate outcomes.  Representatives who had been elected in not the 90s's....not the 80's...but the 70's had trouble getting back into office.  Candidates who had been representing California for years did not get re-elected.  This is because many politicians had a new set of voters to persuade, and a new audience to familiarize themselves with.  This made their campaign that much harder and may very well have pushed them out of office.  Dakota Smith of Los Angeles reported,

"Redistricting really changed the landscape for everyone," said Stuart Waldman, president of the Valley Industry and Commerce Association. "Incumbents had to introduce themselves to new districts. Newcomers had opportunities that didn't exist."

Because the districts regrouped many of the California citizens, some of the incumbents were no longer "incumbents" to the people they were now running to represent.  Their face was no more familiar than that of the challenger.  Thus, the incumbent lost his edge and slid back down the S-curve (shown in Mueller) to where having an effective campaign is crucial.  Now the incumbent was back to square one, or much closer than he had been in 2008, and the marginal utility of each dollar he spent on his campaign was much greater.   Instead of being able to spend money proclaiming his platform, he had to spend money to get people to know who he was.  The incumbent was now on a level playing field with the challenger and only time will tell if the right man won.