Earlier in
the semester, we discussed Down’s Medium Voter Theorem. The theorem explains
that candidates, in a two-party system, will converge upon the center of the
spectrum. They do not become identical, however, due to fear of losing
extremist votes. The reason behind this convergence is that, a predictable
stable equilibrium results at the median voter, and capturing the vote of the
median voter typically comes hand-in-hand with winning the election.
This article discusses the very real possibility that Romney lost the election
due to the far right position of the Republican Party. The party’s future is
uncertain, due to the disconnect between the extreme candidate required to
secure a national nomination and the more moderate candidate that the median
voter will support. Romney, the once moderate governor from a blue state, was
pushed too far to the right in order to “win over the party’s faithful.” The presidential
candidate was forced to take stances on critical issues that ultimately cost
him moderate votes. Losing these votes is of particular importance in swing
states, such as Florida, Virginia, and Ohio, which played a big roll in this
year’s election. As discussed in class, capturing the moderate votes is
typically a decisive factor in election outcome. Had Romney run emphasizing his
more moderate stances on critical issues, rather than the extremist views of
the GOP, perhaps the outcome of the election would have been different.
1 comment:
I agree with the analysis of Romney's shift towards the right during the Republican nomination fight, "The party’s future is uncertain, due to the disconnect between the extreme candidate required to secure a national nomination and the more moderate candidate that the median voter will support." Presidential hopefuls spend the primary season pandering to their respective bases and quickly pivot towards the center for the general election. However, Mitt Romney's failure to convince general election voters of his moderate views does not tell the whole story. The identity of the American median voter has changed over the last ten years due largely to demographic shifts within the electorate.
The Obama campaign built a winning coalition that did not include a majority of white voters:
"As the Obama campaign had assumed more than a year ago, the white portion of the electorate dropped to 72%, and the president won just 39% of that vote. But he carried a whopping 93% of black voters (representing 13% of the electorate), 71% of Latinos (representing 10%), and also 73% of Asians (3%). What’s more, despite all the predictions that youth turnout would be down, voters 18-29 made up 19% of last night’s voting population -- up from 18% four years ago -- and President Obama took 60% from that group."
Swing states like Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada have become more and more diverse. Governor Romney's vision for the country had great appeal among white working-class voters, but unfortunately for the Governor that voting bloc does not carry the sway it once did. The GOP need to construct a platform that has appeal in the new electoral landscape or risk losing a whole generation of voters.
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