Beating the Presidential Elections

The coming presidential elections for Ecuador will happen in February 2017. This election is considered critical, as it could create significant economic and political impact for the country in the long run. Ecuador’s current president, Rafael Correa is the representative of the socialist party Alianza Pais (PAIS Alliance), considered to be from the left. This party has held office for the last ten years, and if reelected their power could be maintained indefinitely, thus, the importance of this election.  Many people disagree with the political ideologies of this party, which has given strength to the opposition. At the beginning of the presidential campaigns, there were many “strong” candidates running for office representing the major political parties, opposing the current president. However, now as the election time approaches, the opposition leader, Jaime Nebot, a political activist, suggests that the main opponents of Alianza Pais unite their parties, in order to gain the most votes and win elections.

The scenario presented can be directly related to Downs and the median voter theory. Nebot has made an intelligent suggestion, by saying that the main opposition candidates, Guillermo Lasso, Paco Moncayo and Cynthia Viteri, should combine their ideologies, and select one candidate in order to increase their chances of winning the elections. By having so many candidates in the elections, the votes are dispersed between the parties. Thus, according to Downs theory, in a multiparty system, the equilibrium allocation depends of the distribution, which cannot be clearly determined. Therefore, it is difficult to predict who the winner of the election will be. If the candidates are reduced, to two major ones, being Alianza Pais and the opposition, the candidate who reaches to the median voter will win. If the new party formed by these three candidates, unites their ideologies and political perspectives, then they will move towards the median of the population. If this happens, voters who do not support the government will have a unifying force to vote for a candidate, increasing the likelihood of winning the elections.