Sunday, October 16, 2016

Does Clinton Appeal to the Moderate Voter?

It is argued in Downs that in the primaries, one can see a bimodal distribution between the leftists and the rightists. Once a candidate is chosen on both sides there is a race to the median voter by both candidates. Whichever candidate can better appeal to the median voter receives the most votes and wins the election. One of the nuances of the transition from a party appeal to a general appeal is the appeal to the extreme voters. As an extreme voter you can either vote for the candidate that is from your party (although they no longer represent the platform you truly want) or to abstain from voting because you feel alienated by the new platform.

This article argues that the DNC divide from the primaries between Clinton and Sanders has left the  Sanders supporters (viewed generally as more extreme) feeling largely alienated from Clinton. A poll from YouGov released mid-September "showed that only 51% of Sanders supporters plan to vote Hillary". That is a substantial base of the democratic party, and one that could ruin Clinton's chance at the office if the supporters hold true to their poll vote. Even further, the author argues "the divisions between Democrats may be far more deep-seated and electorally consequential". To put it in Downs-ian graphical lingo, he sees there may be a rift that questions the idea of the unimodal median distribution, where voters vote for their aligned party candidate although they have altered their platforms for the moderate voter. This begs the question, is it time for a third party coalition to form for the extreme liberals? Only November will show if far-left voters will follow the Hotelling model and vote for Hillary, despite their qualms with her stances or if they will abstain in an expression of intolerance for the liberal party's acceptance of her moderate platform.  

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/02/despite-donald-trump-many-bernie-sanders-supporters-won-t-forgive-hillary-clinton.html

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