In a fascinating recent article, FiveThirtyEight detailed the head-scratching situation in which Utah, a traditionally deeply red state, currently finds itself: deadlocked between Trump and Clinton, with Evan McMullin closing ground quickly. In fact, McMullin is doing so well in Utah that the FiveThirtyEight Nowcast assigns a 9.7% probability of McMullin winning Utah if the election were held today--a number the author claims is far too conservative, given the facts that McMullin is Mormon, Trump finished third in the Utah Republican caucus, and that McMullin is already beginning to leverage Romney's leftover email list infrastructure from 2012.
I believe it's quite possible that McMullin is Utah's Condorcet winner. According to FiveThirtyEight, Clinton and Trump both enjoy support from 26% of the electorate, McMullin enjoys 22%, and the rest of the electorate prefers another candidate. What if McMullin were to go up pairwise against Clinton or Trump? Well, in 2012, Obama only received 25% of the popular vote, with Romney reaping a hefty 73%. 2012 Obama voters tend to be 2016 Clinton supporters, so it's quite possible that her current 26% represents the loyal Democratic Utahn core. Would she receive much more than this if she went head-to-head against a Mormon candidate with traditional conservative values? Likely not; McMullin would win Utah. Because Trump was Utah's third choice during the primaries, and because McMullin is already doing uncharacteristically well as a third candidate, I think it's very likely that McMullin would beat Trump in a pairwise election as well.
All that's left to see now is if Utah's county-by-county voting will yield the Condorcet winner on November 8.
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