This Daily Progress article discusses the recent acknowledgment that Tom Perriello will most likely be endorsed by the National Rifle Association in the upcoming election. The NRA follows a “friendly incumbent rule” by which they support pro-gun law makers seeking re-election.
"Tom hasn’t been afraid to stand up to members of his own party when it comes to fighting for the Second Amendment, and the NRA’s endorsement will signify to Virginia gun owners that they can continue to count on Tom to represent them,” said a spokeswoman in his campaign. Perriello has a strong history of defending second amendment rights and the NRA supports their friends who have stood by them in the past.
The article got me thinking about our discussion in class of the median voter theorem. If the single dimension policy space is a social conservatism continuum, or even more specifically a continuum of gun policy conservatism, what will this endorsement do for Perriello?
The NRA’s endorsement and Perriello’s pro-gun platform would move him (as a candidate option) along the continuum towards the conservative end. It can be predicted from the theorem that inevitably Perriello may lose the votes of some liberal anti-gun extremists as a result of isolation. Yet, it would also be assumed that he would gain the votes of those super loyal to the NRA in all its decisions Conservatives.
The overall gain Perriello would get from his position in the policy space would be contingent on the location of the median voter. If the median voter is already more conservative it is likely that the NRA’s endorsement and his pro-gun stance will benefit him, but rather if the median voter is more liberal (with respect to second amendment rights) it could do more harm than good in his efforts to win the election. Given that much of the 5th district is heavily rural, I’d say this is really great for Perriello and could give him a big boost.
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