Madagascar is waiting on the results of the 2013 presidential election, the first after four years of political deadlock. Since president Marc Ravalomanana was
ousted in 2009, Madagascar has been in a state of political turmoil and there
have been severe social, environmental and economic costs as a result of this
crisis. This article explains the progress of the current election. Over the
next few days, results will continue to trickle in but as of right now,
“Richard Jean-Louis Robinson has about 30% of the votes so far, while his main
rival Hery Martial Rakotoarimanana Rajaonarimampianina has just over 15%.” Only
a small portion of the polling stations has released results as of today. The
article then goes on to explain that if no candidate receives 50% of the votes,
a runoff election will be held.
The
use of a runoff election in democracy is discussed in Mueller Chapter 7 along
with other alternatives to the simple majority rule. In majority rule with a
runoff, if no candidate receives a majority, the top two candidates with the
most votes compete to reach a majority. The importance of the runoff method
lies in that it is decisive and picks a winner. This winner might not always be
a Condorcet winner, but studies have shown that when there are two candidates,
the probability of a Condorcet winner is 100% and given a high number of
candidates, runoff elections result in a Condorcet winner still around 60% of
the time. In this election, there are around 30 approved candidates in the
running, which means that even if there are two front-runners, votes given to
the other candidates could be enough to warrant a runoff. Because of the reliability
of a majority rule with a runoff, hopefully a Condorcet winner can restore political
stability to Madagascar.
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