Free Riding Away From the Voting Booths

After the confirmation of controversial Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, my Twitter timeline was full of fired up people ready for a Democrat takeover in the upcoming midterm elections. One of my friends tweeted: "VOTE. Don't say "oh someone else will do it" because they won't." I take her point to be that change will not come unless we all get out and vote.

As we learned in class, Johnson has a big problem with this belief. He showed us that the chance of our individual vote affecting the outcome of an election is basically zero. If that's the case, why is my friend so convinced that change won't come unless everyone votes? One of the big dangers of high expectations of voter participation is the free rider effect. Because voting costs are so high compared to expected benefits, the safer one feels in their candidate's victory, the less likely one is to actually show up to vote. Current polls show that 72% of Democrats are "very motivated" to vote, and that Democrats "maintain a slight edge in the generic ballot" on the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.

Now, let's assume I am someone who is extremely passionate about the election, but the cost of voting is very high for me. I go on Twitter and see many of my followers enthusiastically proclaiming their commitment to vote in November. I take a look at opinion polls, and see that Democrats are predicted to take control of the House and the Senate. Given all these factors, I decide not to vote because I assume everyone else will show up, and my vote is not needed. While it is true that my individual vote will almost certainly make no difference in the election outcome, if many Democrats come to the same conclusion about voting, the outcome will not be what I expected. Voting is subject to the same dangers of free riding as the market is. Because it is anonymous and no one can confirm whether someone voted or not, those who feel their absence will not be noticed or make a difference will not show up. If a large number of people attempt to free ride, just like in the market, the outcome will be affected and differ from what it should be. Republican voters on the other hand, will most likely not be subject to free rider effects. Their incentive to free ride is much smaller because the polls show them trailing behind. When losing, "every vote counts" is extremely convincing even though it is not technically true. While I'm pretty sure my friend wasn't thinking about Economics while crafting her tweet, her point is valid considering the dangers that arise from free riding.