Median Voter Theory: Israel

Say what you wish about the current state of political affairs in both the US and the UK; it is certainly...messy.  Israel, however, may take the cake in the contest for most unsustainable political circumstances.  After two legislative elections within the span of six months, Israel is still without a functioning governing coalition. With the rise of the Blue and White party and the defection of a long-time coalition partner, PM Bibi Netanyahu is in the political fight of his life. As a third election looms in the horizon, dysfunctional government appears to be the new status quo for the foreseeable future. What insights can Downs' Median Voter theory offer in such a situation?

This model roughly demonstrates the current ideological spectrum of Israel and her political parties:

This model most closely resembles figure 7 of Downs' paper.  There exists a bimodal distribution of voters on the left and right, though more voters fall on the right. Though there are a number of small parties throughout the spectrum, they roughly group in coalitions concentrated on the left and right. Before the Blue and White party was formed, Likud was closest to the median voter. As predicted, they dominated elections for the last 20 years. To maintain power in government, however, Likud had to form coalitions with far-right, ultra-Orthadox parties. These far right parties have increasingly pulled Likud to the right, and subsequently further and further from the median voter. As Downs correctly predicted, a new party formed near the center and to the left of Likud. This "faction of desirous compromise" manifested as the Blue and White party, a centrist big-tent party, primed to gain voters at the expense of the Likud party.

The particular problem in this situation, however, is that while both parties are centered near the median voter, neither can get enough support from parties to the left or the right to form a governing coalition. As predicted, ideological purity is king in this political system. Far be it for either Likud or Blue and White to partner with the Arab parties. And good luck in getting the secularists to join the ultra-Orthodox in a government. As it sits now, those 61 seats seem all that more elusive for all parties involved. 

Perhaps, as has been rumored, a unity government may be the only way out of this political quagmire.