When Voting Becomes Dangerous

Amid threats of violence from the Taliban, hundreds of polling places in Afghanistan did not open up. A photo was circulating online of a man named Safiullah Safi holding up two fingers: one was dipped in purple ink and the other was missing its tip. The tip of his finger had been cut off by the Taliban for voting in the prior 2014 election. Despite this warning to not vote again, he ended up voting in the election this year. When asked for a justification, he told the reporter, "When it comes to the future of my children and country I will not sit back even if they cut off my whole hand." Was it rational for Mr. Safi to cast his vote, even with the strong possibility of losing a limb?

In lecture, we discussed when it is rational to vote: we vote when the expected marginal benefits are greater than the marginal costs. The expected marginal benefits of voting is the difference in value we derive from our preferred candidate vs. the other candidate, times the probability of our vote being decisive in the election. Of course, the probability of casting the decisive vote is very small. But there is another factor in calculating marginal benefits that is independent of the probability of casting a decisive vote. Let's call this independent factor, D. Thus, it is rational for us to vote when

E[MB] + D > MC

where E[MB] is the expected marginal benefits, and MC is the marginal costs. 

Going back to Mr. Safi, there is no doubt that the threat of violence from the Taliban drastically increases the marginal cost of voting. By going to the polls, he risked losing his hand or even his life. However, Mr. Safi refuses to sit back in the process. Thus, he is voting to express something about himself (think expressive demand). This is independent of the outcome of the election, and is not multiplied by the probability of casting a decisive vote. For Mr. Safi, D is incredibly high. Therefore, although there were high marginal costs associated with voting in Afghanistan, it may be rational for him to vote nonetheless.