The
prisoner’s dilemma describes a situation where it is in your best interest, given
uncertainty over how the other player in the game will act, to betray the other
participant. This is known as a dominant strategy. This strategy, however, is Pareto
inefficient as there exits a Pareto efficient move for both players, or an
action that helps at least one without harming any.
North
Korea and the US are on the verge of a prisoner’s dilemma scenario. The
situation is plagued on both sides with uncertainty and misinformation regarding
the other’s intended actions. North Korea does not yet
have the full nuclear capability to engage in a proper prisoner’s dilemma. However,
if our worst fears are realized, North Korea and the US may find themselves in
a situation where, faced with the uncertainty of the other’s actions, nuclear
threats may be triggered. Of course the Pareto-efficient equilibrium would be
one in which both countries commit to nuclear non-proliferation. Without
intervention, however, this seems unlikely. In Mueller’s eyes, the prisoner’s
dilemma presents the rationale for the formation of government, which has the
ability to move a Pareto-inefficient allocation to a Pareto-efficient
allocation. In the case of today’s nuclear threat with North Korea, according
to Mueller, a 3rd party enforcer is the only option to keep both
countries from defecting as predicted by their dominant strategy. In the
absence of cooperation between the governments of North Korea and the United
States, an international body to enforce nuclear disarmament is essential.
1 comment:
The potential nuclear threats between North Korea and the United States have startling similarities to the nuclear threat of the Cold War. The prisoners dilemma model also applies to the Cold War in terms of accumulating nuclear weapons. Since both the US and the Soviet Union were unaware of the actions of the other, the dominant strategy for each was to accumulate as many nuclear weapons as possible. This led to a pareto inefficient solution which created much anxiety and distress during the years of the war. The pareto efficient solution would have been for neither country to accumulate nuclear weapons - this would have saved many tax dollars and many sleepless nights for both countries. Thankfully, the prisoners dilemma applied only to the accumulation of the weapons and not the actual use of them. Hopefully if the situation with North Korea escalates, the prisoners dilemma again, will only apply to the accumulation of weapons and not the use of them. Similar to the economic collapse of the Soviet Union, North Korea may not have the economic resources to employ their dominant strategy for long.
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