Since 2021, Bulgaria has held eight parliamentary elections for government. It became the country with most elections held in the European Union before a permanent council of ministers could be even formed. As a parliamentary republic, the constitution of the state requires a single party or a coalition to have at least 50% of the votes (or seats in parliament) in order to form a cabinet. Except for the last election in April 2026, parties were only able to barely reach 30% of the votes. When majority-rule elections repeatedly fail to produce outcomes that satisfy enough voters, abstention can change the effective electorate and create opportunities for new parties to gain support.
Bulgaria is an interesting example of how different voter turnout can affect election outcomes. If voters become disappointed with their preferred party or candidate and decide not to vote, while supporters of another party continue to vote regardless of who their candidate is, the election result may not reflect the preferences of the population as a whole. This is an excellent opportunity for brand new parties to emerge to capture a larger portion of voter turnout as a group of voters abstain from voting. For example, a party could be preferred by more eligible voters but still lose because many of its supporters stay home while the other party has higher turnout. The absence of duopoly also creates more opportunities for new parties to attract voters who are dissatisfied with the existing parties. In previous Bulgarian elections, a right-wing party gained significantly more votes than the second-largest left-wing party, showing how a party can gain greater representation when turnout is low and its supporters remain more motivated to vote. This asserts that uneven voter turnout can lead to different election outcomes because abstention changes the composition of the electorate, meaning that the median voter among actual voters may differ from the median voter among all eligible voters.
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